Start with the evidence.
Identify what the company has said and where the information comes from. Separate a confirmed event from a possible interpretation.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Understand the move.
Question the story.
Company evidence and price context form the basis of Momentum’s research. Supporting, opposing and review perspectives examine the assumptions behind a potential trade.
01 / PERSPECTIVE
FICTIONAL COMPANY SCENARIO
The case for the opportunity.
A company announces an expansion into a new market. The supporting view asks whether that creates a meaningful new source of demand.
- What is the company actually committing to?
- Is the opportunity material to the business?
- Does price behaviour support further review?
Explore the three perspectives using a fictional company scenario. Each view has a different question to answer.
THE RESEARCH STANDARD
Evidence, interpretation and challenge.
A research record should explain its sources, assumptions and unresolved questions. These principles guide Momentum’s approach.
Make room for challenge.
Examine the assumption behind the supporting case. Keep uncertainty, competing explanations and missing evidence in view.
Define the review criteria.
Identify the evidence that would strengthen or invalidate the thesis, and the questions that remain unresolved.
BEHIND THE RESEARCH
The announcement
is only the beginning.
A headline can tell you what happened. Understanding the opportunity also means asking about scale, timing, expectations and the evidence still to come.
What do we know?
The event, its source and the company context.
What are we assuming?
The interpretation, its dependencies and the opposing view.
What would change the picture?
The evidence that deserves attention at the next review.
“The rationale for a trade should be open to scrutiny.”
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Context before conviction.
Read our perspective on bringing the story behind a market move into the research process.